RSOE EDIS – Situation Update No. 26 : Ukraine – Epidemic
Situation Update No. 26
On 2009-11-07 at 14:11:03 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 109 person(s)
Number of Infected: 764000 person(s)
Situation
The number of infected people in the Ukraine shot up to 764000 since about two days ago. They have all fallen ill with the “flu and acute respiratory infections”, 34000 have been hospitalised claims Olexander Bilovol. The flu AND respiratory deaths jumped up to 109 people and only 14 of those linked to swine flu according to health officials. The World Health Organisation however said that more people could be infected with h1n1. It is still unclear whether most people are infected with h1n1 or the viral pneumonic plague or as some claim it is the same thing (although the one is a virus and the other one a bacteria). So far evidence shows that this is a pneumonic plague mostly as well as h1n1 infecting people at the same time. the WHO is still to confirm whether the it is a normal h1n1 or if it has mutated into a different h1n1 than seen in the US and Uk like the president of the Ukraine claimed this week.
RSOE EDIS: USA – HAZMAT – 2009.11.05
EDIS CODE: HZ-20091105-23723-USA
Date & Time: 2009-11-05 03:51:21 [UTC]
Area: USA, State of Missouri, University of Missouri (Laboratory), Columbia
Event exciting : Phosphorus-32 (radioactive isotope) leak
Damage level: Moderate (Level 2)
Not confirmed information!
Description:
Portions of an MU building have been cordoned off after an MU researcher inadvertently spread radioactive material Monday evening by foot – literally. MU spokesman Christian Basi said that a researcher in a lab on the first floor of Schlundt Annex accidentally spilled phosphorus-32, a radioactive isotope, which made it onto his shoes. He then walked in and out of the lab wearing the contaminated footwear. The researcher notified MU’s environmental health and safety department as soon as he realized what had happened, Basi said, and the department responded “very, very quickly.” There were very few people in the building at the time, he said, and the department soon determined that the contamination posed no health risks to MU students, faculty and staff. No classes have been canceled, and no students were involved, Basi said, but access to six labs near the site of contamination has been restricted. The environmental health and safety department is surveying the affected area, which includes space outside Schlundt Annex, to find and remove or clean all affected materials. The department will be conducting an investigation to determine exactly what happened, and disciplinary measures – if any – will be determined after the investigation. Basi said that anyone working with radioactive material has to have been authorized and trained to do so. Peter Ashbrook, director of environmental health and safety, said the department has “deployed a good hunk of our staff.” Department employees are using Geiger counters to find contaminated material and then either remove it or clean the area. Ashbrook wasn’t sure how long the process would take.
“These things can be tedious,” he said. Phosphorus-32 has a half-life of roughly 14 days, Ashbrook said, which is considered to be a short half-life. The department will keep the removed material until it is no longer radioactive. While it typically keeps wastes containing phosphorus-32 for six months before disposing of it as nonradioactive waste, the small amounts present in this contaminated material might allow the department to dispose of it earlier, Ashbrook said. The department will not begin its investigation into the accident until it has completed its decontamination work. One MU professor who works in the basement of Schlundt Annex said he wasn’t alarmed by news of the contamination. “I don’t feel any danger,” said MU biochemistry professor Michael Henzl. “This is not Chernobyl.” Henzl suspended radioactive activity in his own lab several years before because of concerns for incidents such as Monday’s spill. “You’ve got to take the radiation safety seriously,” Henzl said. His research looks at calcium binding proteins, and he found that using calorimetry has been more effective for measuring activity than his previous use of the radioactive isotope calcium-45. Phosphorus-32 is one of the most commonly used radioactive isotopes at MU campus, Basi said. The potential risk of airborne exposure to phosphorus-32 is minimal, Henzl said. “The amount of ionizing radiation from being out in the sun is greater,” he said, but he added that if the material were ingested, it would be a serious problem. Access to the area will remain restricted until the environmental health and safety department has determined that it is safe, Basi said. “We will keep it cordoned off until we are positive it’s clean,” he said.
RSOE EDIS – Situation Update No. 17-20 : Ukraine – Epidemic Hazard
Situation Update No. 17
On 2009-11-03 at 02:57:15 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic Hazard
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 67 person(s)
Number of Infected: 255000 person(s)
Situation
Report by WHO:
On 28 Oct 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine informed WHO, through its Country Office in Ukraine, about an unusually high level of activity of acute respiratory illness in the western part of the country, associated with an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities. On 30 Oct 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine announced the confirmation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection by RT-PCR in 11 out of 30 samples obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory illness in 2 of the most affected regions. Tests were performed in 2 laboratories in Kyiv, including the National Influenza Centre. Confirmatory tests will be performed at one of the WHO Collaborating Centres for Influenza. The situation is quickly changing with increasingly high levels of acute respiratory illness (ARI)/influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity being observed in Ternopil, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi regions. The higher levels of transmission in these regions corresponds to an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities associated with severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness.
As of 30 Oct 2009, over 2300 individuals have been admitted to hospital, including over 1100 children. 131 cases have required intensive care, including 32 children. As of 31 Oct 2009, a total of 38 fatalities associated with severe manifestations of ARI have been registered. Preliminary epidemiological data analysis indicates that severe cases and deaths primarily occur among previously healthy young adults aged 20-50 years. Fatal and severe cases are reported to have sought medical attention 5 to 7 days after onset of symptoms. International experience of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic to date, especially from the Southern Hemisphere, has shown that poor clinical outcomes are associated with delays in seeking health care and limited access to supportive care. In addition, this virus has also shown its ability to cause rapidly progressive overwhelming lung disease, which is very difficult to treat. Public health measures recommended by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine across the entire country include: social distancing (school closures and cancellation of mass gatherings); enhancement of surveillance activities; increased respiratory hygiene; and continuation of the vaccination campaign against seasonal influenza targeting at-risk groups.
The Government of Ukraine has activated coordination mechanisms to respond to the rapidly evolving situation, including the harmonization of response plans across all administrative levels. In response to the request from the minister of health of Ukraine, WHO is deploying a multidisciplinary team of experts to assist national authorities in mitigating the impact of the pandemic. The team comprises the following expertise: health emergencies coordination, case management, epidemiology, laboratory diagnostics, logistics, and media/risk communications. As per WHO’s communication in May 2009, there is no rationale for travel restrictions, because such measures will not prevent the spread of the disease. Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations aimed at preventing the spread of infection such as attention to respiratory hygiene. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans, and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus.
Situation Update No. 18
On 2009-11-03 at 14:23:25 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 67 person(s)
Number of Infected: 255000 person(s)
Situation
Officials in Ukraine have closed schools for three weeks, imposed travel restrictions and are limiting public events as the country battles to stop the spread of swine flu. More than 60 people are believed to have died of respiratory problems in the past week, and the measures are among the toughest to be implemented in Europe to tackle the virus. It’s still not clear whether all the deaths were caused by swine flu, but the news has sparked panic, and people have started wearing masks across the country.
The Ukrainian health minister Vasyl Knyazevych has asked the media only to report the comments of medical experts following a series of misleading reports which fuelled public anxiety. On national television, he said Ukraine had the same problems as the rest of the world. He also called on fellow politicians to give people ‘a week of silence,’ and said there was no need for panic. However, his calls may already be too late. 255,000 cases of flu and acute respiratory problems have been registered among the 46m population. 15,000 have been hospitalised. The World Health Organisation says there is no evidence to suggest that Ukraine had a bad outbreak of swine flu, but it has agreed to send a team there to help the country cope. President Viktor Yushchenko has also appealed for international help.
The government has faced growing criticism of its handling of the outbreak. Some opposition politicians have been particularly critical of the health minister who they not only want to be sacked, but jailed. Opposition politicians from the Party of the Regions say the first reported cases were at the beginning of October, but by middle of the month there had already been confirmed deaths. They say the authorities should have provided accurate information about the outbreak so that Ukrainians could seek appropriate medical help. Instead, the opposition says, many people have resorted to self-treatment. Experts say Ukraine was unprepared for the swine flu outbreak, and the hunt for political scapegoats is likely to continue. The opposition leader, Viktor Yanukovych, has called on parliament to scrutinise the government’s actions.
The influential National Security and Defence Council has called on the judiciary to investigate why Ukraine was unable to prevent the outbreak. President Viktor Yushchenko has even asked the country’s security service to look at whether pharmacies are guilty of price-fixing anti-flu medications. Critics have also rounded on Ukrainian television channels which they say have wall-to-wall coverage of Ukraine’s leading politicians, but not leading medical specialists. This, they say, is exacerbating public concern rather than allaying popular fears. Some analysts say swine flu is being used by the President and his arch rival the Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to score political points ahead of presidential elections in January. Supporters of Prime Minister Tymoshenko, who remains at bitter loggerheads with the President, say he is trying to blame her government for the situation.
Aware of the electoral sensitivities, she assured the Ukrainian public that she stood with them, and took “every responsibility for the government’s handling of swine flu on herself.” “The world has given us not one, but two great trials – first, the financial crisis and now this horrible flu.” Ukraine’s leading political analysts say the handling of swine flu has become one of the key electoral issues. According to them, rival candidates are seeking to take the initiative in battling the spread of the virus. “The swine flu outbreak has overshadowed all the other negative campaigning we were seeing, especially around Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko,” says Vitaly Kulyk, a political scientist at Kiev’s Centre for Civil Society. “The main players are using the flu in their propaganda war,” he adds.
Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, whose party is backed by Ukraine’s most powerful oligarch, has called on Ukrainians to donate to a special fund which was set up by his party. He said he wanted to hold a TV marathon to raise funds to fight the epidemic. The first aircraft to arrive in Ukraine from Switzerland carrying emergency medical supplies, was met by the country’s leadership. They demonstrated how to put face masks on in front of cameras. Many Ukrainians however, are asking why their government did not act sooner. It was evident in May or June that swine flu was spreading around the world, they say, yet Ukraine failed to stockpile sufficient supplies of medication. Only now, when Ukraine faces an epidemic of swine flu, has the government started to act.
Situation Update No. 19
On 2009-11-03 at 15:25:15 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 71 person(s)
Number of Infected: 255000 person(s)
Situation
An outbreak of seasonal and swine flu, which hit Ukraine last week, has claimed the lives of 71 people, the country’s prime minister said on Tuesday. “Seventy-one people have died of flu as of today,” Yulia Tymoshenko said reporting to parliament on the spread of flu and acute respiratory illness. The death toll from the A/H1N1 virus has not changed since Monday’s 22 fatalities. The health ministry said on Monday 255,000 flu cases had been reported in the country, with 15,000 receiving treatment in hospital. The government has imposed quarantines in nine western provinces to curb the spread of swine flu, which originated in the Tirnopol Region, closed all education establishments in Kiev and obliged people to wear medical masks in all catering establishments, shops and social services facilities across Ukraine.
Tymoshenko and other top officials met a cargo of 300,000 doses of the Tamiflu medication against swine flu from Switzerland at an airport on Sunday. Slovakia closed two of the five crossings on the border with western Ukraine on Monday over the flu scare, according the AFP. Hundreds of thousands of people pass through the border checkpoints every day. However, Tymoshenko, who insisted there is no swine flu pandemic in the country, but instead an ordinary seasonal flu outbreak, said on Tuesday “the situation has stabilized,” as the growth of flu cases has slowed down somewhat. Tymoshenko earlier criticized drug stores for shortages of medicines and blamed “media hysteria” and politicians’ populist statements for causing the deficit. She pledged further measures to curb the flu, as well as the panic. Later on Tuesday, parliament approved the allocation of 1 billion hryvnias ($125 million) on measures to fight swine and seasonal flu.
Situation Update No. 20
On 2009-11-03 at 15:29:45 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 71 person(s)
Number of Infected: 255000 person(s)
Situation
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called on the European Union to help neighbouring Ukraine fight a swine flu epidemic, saying its further spread is threatening the wider bloc. Ukraine shut schools, banned public meetings and restricted travel earlier this month in an attempt to combat the H1N1 flu epidemic, which has caused public concern in Poland. “The character of this threat demands that rapid action be undertaken at the European Union level,” Tusk wrote in a letter to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who holds the rotating EU presidency. “This will serve both the interests of Ukraine, and the EU itself,” he said in the letter, reported on Tuesday.
Tusk urged Brussels to hold an extraordinary meeting of the EU’s health council to identify Ukraine’s needs and discuss availability of vaccines. Poland has so far had only about a dozen H1N1 cases and none has been fatal. But news broadcasts showed Poles lining up at pharmacies to get sanitary masks which were quickly sold out in a sign of growing public concern. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer told Reuters that Warsaw was awaiting a reply from Brussels, and said he feared the epidemic could spread rapidly in eastern Europe. “Poland has already organised quite reasonable help for Ukraine, but in a split second we will see swine flu in Belarus, we are already hearing something about Romania,” he said. Shipments of medicine and medical equipment have been leaving Poland for Ukraine in recent days. A growing number of swine flu cases have also been reported in Germany and Slovakia, which likewise share borders with Poland.
RSOE EDIS: Indonesia – Cosmic Event – 2009.10.29
Date & Time: 2009-10-29 04:44:33 [UTC]
Area: Indonesia, Sulawesi Island, South Sulawesi, Bone
Not confirmed information!
Description:
1. At about 11:00 a.m. local time (300 Universal Time, UT) on October 8, 2009, people around the town of Bone, in the province of South Sulawesi, island of Sulewesi, in Indonesia saw a very bright fireball in the late morning sky. Experts now say it was a meteor hitting the atmosphere of Earth, and exploding with the energy of approximately 40,000 to 50,000 tons (40 to 50 kilotons) of TNT.
2. An asteroid exploded over Indonesia with the force of three Hiroshima nuclear bombs – and no one on Earth knew it was coming. The New Scientist website reports the dramatic explosion over South Sulawesi, Indonesia, on October 8 underscores how blind humanity is to the danger of giant space rocks. NASA estimated the explosion was the equivalent to 50,000 tons of TNT, making it one of the largest asteroid explosions ever observed. However, this time we were lucky – the blast caused no damage on the ground because it occurred at high altitude, 15 to 20km above Earth’s surface.
Situation Update No. 1
On 2009-10-29 at 14:38:03 [UTC]
Event: Cosmic Event
Location: Indonesia Sulawesi Island South Sulawesi Bone Situation
Report by NASA NEO:
On October 8, 2009 about 03:00 Greenwich time, an atmospheric fireball blast was observed and recorded over an island region of Indonesia. The blast is thought to be due to the atmospheric entry of a small asteroid about 10 meters in diameter that, due to atmospheric pressure, detonated in the atmosphere with an energy of about 50 kilotons (the equivalent of 100,000 pounds of TNT explosives).
The blast was recorded visually and reported upon by local media representatives. See the YouTube video at:
A report from Elizabeth Silber and Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario indicates that several international very-long wavelength infrasound detectors recorded the blast and fixed the position near the coastal city of Bone in South Sulawesi, island of Sulewesi. They note that the blast was in the 10 to 50 kT range with the higher end of this range being more likely. Assuming an estimated size of about 5-10 meters in diameter, we would expect a fireball event of this magnitude about once every 2 to 12 years on average. As a rule, the most common types of stony asteroids would not be expected to cause ground damage unless their diameters were about 25 meters in diameter or larger.
RSOE EDIS – Situation Update No. 5-7 : Ukraine – Epidemic Hazard
Situation Update No. 5
On 2009-10-30 at 19:02:43 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic Hazard
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 40(?) person(s)
Number of Infected: 40000 person(s)
Situation
As the world enters the H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic season, another possible virus emerges as 30 people in the Eastern European country of Ukraine have died from this latest flu. Each country is dealing with their own cases of the H1N1 Swine Flu and many have even taken the vaccination but is H1N1 the only flu out there? A viral infection in Ukraine has taken the lives of 30 people and at first it seemed like an ordinary flu but after a week the symptoms became worse.
Radio Netherlands Worldwide reports 40,000 Ukrainians have contracted the disease and at least 100 are in the hospital. Tests are currently being conducted and all is known is that it is not the H1N1 Swine Flu. A large number of schools and childcare facilities are being shut down, especially in the city of Lvov. Also, government agencies are handing out surgical masks and gloves to people in the western part of Ukraine.
However, Russia Today is reporting that it is A/H1N1 or Californian Flu and the total number of deaths is closer to 40. Prime Minister Timoshenko stated, “Express-tests cannot provide a hundred percent verification of the virus, they give only 50% accuracy. That’s why blood probes of those who died were sent to special laboratories for further testing. And only this morning it was confirmed that at least 11 deaths were caused by the A/H1N1 virus.” The Ukrainian government is calling for international aid to help fight their epidemic and President Yushchenko believes the country needs more than $6 million to battle the epidemic(s). Wolne Media have also reported that the symptoms have been diagnosed as pneumonia. Furthermore, four patients in the hospital in Lviv Oblast have been confirmed to have “very severe pneumonia” after contracting the influenza.
Situation Update No. 6
On 2009-10-31 at 04:48:27 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic Hazard
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 40(?) person(s)
Number of Infected: 40000 person(s)
Situation
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on Friday blamed swine flu for the death of 11 people so far, as government officials moved to head off an epidemic. Yushchenko announced the death toll at a press briefing televised nationally and described emergency measures the government was taking to control the spread of the disease. All of the suspected victims had lived in Ukraine’s western provinces, and more cases of flu infection were possible, Yushchenko said. Health Minister Vasyl Kniazevych said medical personnel were monitoring 22 people in western Ukraine known to have shown swine flu symptoms, with one case confirmed, according an Interfax report. Thirty people, including a child, who suffered from flu-like symptoms have died in the western provinces since October 19, but the cause of their deaths “was not necessarily swine flu … we are still investigating these cases,” Kniazevych said. Twelve of the victims lived in Lviv province, 12 in the Ternopil province and six in the Ivano-Frankisk province, according to Health Ministry data. Bohdan Oniskiv, a Ternopil region health official, described the dead as almost all “young, physically healthy people.”
Beyond the government figures, between four and seven other people suffering from swine flu-like symptoms died in the last week in Ukraine’s Chernovetsky, Rivne, and Ternopil provinces, according to independent Ukrainian media reports. The official announcements confirming the presence of swine flu, and related deaths, came one week after reports first surfaced in local media of as many as 30 deaths potentially caused by the virus, all in the country’s western provinces. “Unfortunately, we can state that there is in fact a swine flu epidemic in the country,” Kniazevych told a press conference in Kiev. “We have a lot of work to do.” The National Security Council, headed by Yushchenko, on Friday held an emergency closed session to discuss anti-swine flumeasures. Assistance to Ukraine from the World Health Organisation and other international assistance agencies could be “critical” in limiting the extent of the swine flu outbreak, but Health Ministry leadership believes “we have sufficient medical supplies to deal with the disease,” Kniazevych said. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko ordered a massive and unprecedented disease-control programme to go into effect immediately in an attempt to prevent the spread of the disease. Schools nationwide are to close for three weeks, and “all mass gatherings will be forbidden,” Tymoshenko said, in comments reported by Channel 5 television.
Situation Update No. 7
On 2009-10-31 at 11:20:02 [UTC]
Event: Epidemic Hazard
Location: Ukraine MultiStates Ternopil, Lviv, Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts
Number of Deads: 34 person(s)
Number of Infected: 80000 person(s)
Situation
The death toll from a swine flu outbreak in Ukraine rose to 34 on Saturday, as the government announced new measures to control the spread of the virus. Two of the victims were infants, Health Minister Vasyl Kniazevych said. As of Saturday morning, the flu was thought still to be limited in to the country’s western provinces, but because of the number of suspected cases, a spread was likely, he said. ‘The country must prepare for a wider outbreak,’ Kniazevych said. ‘Its direction of movement is towards central Ukraine.’ More than 80,000 people in the swine flu outbreak area were registered with authorities as displaying possible flu symptoms, but because of the similarity of swine flu symptoms to those of common flu, health workers were struggling to estimate the extent of the swine flu’s spread, Kniazevych said. ‘We had a problem with identifying the (swine flu) antibody in flu sufferers,’ he said. ‘There is a mass of work we have to do.’ Panic purchasing of flu remedies, surgical masks, and even citrus fruits took place in most major cities in the former Soviet republic. The swine flu deaths thus far have been limited to the nine western provinces, most along the borders with Slovakia, Poland, and Romania. Shortages of over-the-counter medicines used to treat the common flu were reported as far away as the eastern city Zaporizhia, some 900 kilometres from the epicentre of the outbreak. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was scheduled to hold an emergency meeting with regional health officials Saturday, to discuss new disease control measures.
Invoking a rarely-used law allowing the state to take temporary control of private property, Tymoshenko declared all health-related organizations in the country, including privately-owned health clinics and hospitals, to be ‘directly subordinate’ to the government, effective immediately. The government would pay particular attention to medical supply retailers, to head off artificial goods shortages and price gouging, she said, in comments reported by the Unian news agency. Retail price spikes of as much as 300 per cent for cold and flu remedies have taken place in recent years in Ukraine, during avian flu outbreaks. Tymoshenko claimed privately-operated chemists in the country were ‘absolutely supplied in full volume with all necessary medical supplies,’ contradicting spot reports of shortages. Trains operated by the national railroad Ukrzhelesnitsiya were running according to schedule, but staff were ordered to wear surgical masks, and instructed to report passengers who appear to have flu symptoms.
Medical personnel aboard ‘every passenger train’ were available to provide first aid to potential flu sufferers, and would report people treated to the Health Ministry, according to statement on the Ukrzhelesnitsiya website. Traffic in Ukrainian airports and intercity highways meanwhile appeared to be at normal levels despite a call by Tymoshenko for Ukrainians to avoid long-distance travel if possible. Traffic police and airport security personnel have been briefed to screen travellers visually, Tymoshenko said. All schools, kindergartens, and universities were closed for a three-week period on Friday. A ban on massed gatherings – forcing the wholesale cancellation of concerts and political rallies – was also in effect. Ukraine’s national security council on Friday approved the equivalent of 55 million dollars in emergency funding, for swine flu control. President Viktor Yushchenko on Friday put the number of deaths from swine flu at 11 and said the country was ‘in serious need’ of foreign assistance.
RSOE EDIS: Ukraine – Epidemic Hazard – 2009.10.28
Date & Time: 2009-10-28 03:37:20 [UTC]
Area: Ukraine, Ternopilska Oblast, , Ternopil
!!! ALERT !!!
Number of death person(s): 7
Not confirmed information!
Description:
Seven flu deaths have been reported in the Ternopol region, the only Ukrainian area having a flu epidemic, head of the regional health department Bogdan Onyskiv told a Tuesday press conference. Doctors explained the deaths of young and physically fit persons with flu complications. The flu epidemic in western Ukraine started two weeks ago, yet the type of the virus is still unknown. “It is possible to name the type of the flu only in ten days. Ukrainian and British doctors are making tests. The final results will be announced once a London laboratory confirms them,” Onyskiv said. The Ternopol region has over 10,000 flu cases. Public events are prohibited, and 109 schools with 42,000 students are under quarantine. Experts explain the early cold and flu outbreak with a sharp drop of temperatures a week before the beginning of the heating season. The region did not have flu epidemics for the past five or seven years. The local residents had no immunity from flu. An increase of the cold and flu rate was reported from all the Ukrainian regions, but the situation is generally stable, a source at the Ukrainian Health Ministry said. The rate is high in Chernigov, Lvov, Kiev, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kharkov.
The name of Hazard: Unidentified Disase (Flu like syndrome)
Species: Human
Status: Suspected
Posted:2009-10-28 03:37:20 [UTC]
U.S. Army Unveil First Civilian Doctrine for Peace Operations
New World Order Prep
http://www.usip.org/resources/guiding-principles-stabilization-and-reconstruction
1.0 Context
Terrorists, transnational organized crime syndicates, local warring factions, warlords, and
petty thieves have all found common cause in states and regions in conflict. 3is nexus of
interests has grown in sophistication over the past decade, aided by money and technology
and fueled by greed and fanaticism. Civilians have increasingly become the victims of
violence fostered by this nexus. 3e required response is a comprehensive1 one that brings
together specialized organizations to stabilize extremely dangerous and hostile environments
while laying the foundations for a sustainable peace. 3is journey is a continuum
that nests stabilization2 within conflict-sensitive development. Stabilization aims to
prevent the renewal of violent conflict; conflict-sensitive development seeks to enable a
long-lasting peace.
While some progress has been made over the years, the U.S. capability and those of its
partners to leverage and coordinate adequate civilian and military assets for this journey
still lags behind the current adaptive abilities of the enemies of peace. To address the
capacity challenge in the United States, the Clinton administration issued Presidential
Decision Directive 56 (PDD/NSC-56) in 1997, the first U.S. directive to provide for
whole-of-government planning and execution.3 Eight years later, the Bush administration
issued National Security Presidential Directive 44 (NSPD-44), another executive decision
to bolster a whole-of-government response.4
Against this backdrop, thousands of U.S. government personnel from more than a dozen
civilian agencies have deployed to more than a dozen stabilization and reconstruction
(S&R) missions during the past two decades.5 But the U.S. government does not
engage in this business alone. It is but one player in a complex maze of peacebuilders
working in increasingly harsh places like Afghanistan, the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and
Haiti. Indeed, sixty operations have been conducted under the auspices of the United
Nations since 1948.6 UN-led operations in 2009 have surged once again to an all-time
high. Another signal is the doubling of operations mounted by regional organizations
in the past decade.7
As global trends indicate, instability is likely to pose greater, and perhaps more numerous,
challenges in the years to come.
Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening
instability if they persist over a one- to two-year period. Besides increased
economic nationalism, the most likely political fallout for US interests will involve
1. See Appendix E, Acronyms and Glossary of Selected Key Terms.
2. Ibid.
3. United States President, “United States Presidential Decision Directive 56, Managing Complex Contingency
Operations,” 1997.
4. United States President, “United States National Security Presidential Directive 44, Management of Interagency
Efforts Concerning Reconstruction and Stabilization,” 2005.
5. 3is includes, but is not limited to, the U.S. Departments of State, Labor, Treasury, Justice, Homeland
Security, Agriculture, Energy, Commerce, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development
and Transportation; and agencies including the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Central
Intelligence Agency, and the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
6. United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations and Department of Field Support, Peacekeeping
Operations Principles and Guidelines, 2008. Hereafter: UNDPKO, Principles and Guidelines, 2008.
7. International Forum for the Challenges of Peace Operations, A Comparative Study on Doctrine and Principles
for Multinational Peace Operations: A Case for Harmonization and Enhanced Interoperability, 2007.
Introduction 1-3
allies and friends not being able to fully meet their defense and humanitarian obligations.
8
Dennis C. Blair
Director of National Intelligence
February 12, 2009
Learning how to succeed in these missions is one of the greatest challenges of the century.
————
1.3 Methodology
3e manual rests on a comprehensive review of major strategic policy documents from
state ministries of defense, foreign affairs, and development, along with major intergovernmental
and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) that toil in war-shattered landscapes
around the globe. 3e collection of documents9 was built through consultations
with dozens of major institutions and reviewed by a team of researchers over the course of
a year and a half. It is extensive, but not exhaustive.
Many U.S. agencies, UN organizations, regional institutions and major foreign state partners
and their respective agencies involved in these operations have had an opportunity to vet this
manual.10 It has been reviewed by a number of NGOs that are present before most missions
deploy, during the mission, and after the peace is largely in the hands of the host nation.
————
Type of Mission. This manual deals with missions that involve helping a country
move from violent conflict to peace. It is a mission requiring the presence of
peacekeeping and peace enforcement forces and other peacebuilding institutions.
3e mission will have some international leadership governing the institutions
deployed.12 Finally, the mission should be guided by a mandate, preferably from
the United Nations.
————
2.1 End States19
Below is a summary description of each end state, framed according to the perception of
the host nation population, as they will be the final arbiters of whether peace has been
achieved.
Safe and Secure Environment
Ability of the people to conduct their daily lives without fear of systematic or large-scale
violence.
Rule of Law
Ability of the people to have equal access to just laws and a trusted system of justice that
holds all persons accountable, protects their human rights and ensures their safety and
security.
Stable Governance
Ability of the people to share, access or compete for power through nonviolent political
processes and to enjoy the collective benefits and services of the state.
Sustainable Economy
Ability of the people to pursue opportunities for livelihoods within a system of economic
governance bound by law.
Social Well-Being
Ability of the people to be free from want of basic needs and to coexist peacefully in
communities with opportunities for advancement.
PCAST H1N1: An Improbable Scenario Requiring More Stringent Non-Medical Measures
An Improbable Scenario Requiring More Stringent Non-Medical Measures (pg. 44)
The 1918–19 pandemic was characterized by a relatively mild first wave of illness in spring 1918, followed by much more severe second and third waves. This pattern could conceivably be repeated with the 2009-H1N1 virus, leading to a far greater strain on communities than described in Chapter 3 or currently anticipated by the Federal Government. While the Working Group views this specter as highly unlikely and inappropriate as a driver of Federal preparedness efforts, the possibility of such a “step change” in the severity of the pandemic (e.g., to “Category 5” in the current Pandemic Severity Index) cannot be entirely ignored. If it should occur, the Federal Government would be confronted with a national crisis and the prospect of hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of hospitalizations, and a dramatic impact on the functioning of communities due to school closure, workplace absenteeism, and fear-driven changes in people’s behavior.
Such an event would stress the Federal Government in ways that are not discussed in this report. The Federal Government may be unable to respond to the number and scope of requests for Federal assistance from state and local authorities, whether for support of the healthcare infrastructure or the preservation of law and order. Communities may be unable to provide medical care to everyone in need, raising the prospect of rationing of services and mortality that would otherwise be preventable.
Federal, state, and local authorities may take unilateral action such as border closure, seizure of essential commodities, or curtailment of individual freedoms, out of fear or as a result of public pressure. Under these circumstances, it would be necessary for the Federal Government to have streamlined mechanisms for decision making and coordination of the national response. The capability for such coordination extends well beyond the processes described earlier in this chapter, and falls into the realm of “national incident management.” The Federal Government has spent a great deal of time developing systems for such coordination; the National Response Framework and associated documents are the result of that work. But these systems have never been tested by an event of the scope and scale described here. For this reason, it is essential that the Administration examine these systems of coordination and the roles and responsibilities of all players—particularly the Departments of Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Justice, Defense, State, and Education—to ensure that the Federal response can be scaled to the magnitude of the health crisis as warranted by the circumstances.
